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Could a US Bitcoin Reserve Be Coming? Cryptoassets Surge as Odds Climb Above 50%

Bitwise Weekly Crypto Market Compass – Week 4, 2025

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  • Last week, cryptoassets generally outperformed traditional assets due to rising odds for a strategic bitcoin reserve in the US.
  • Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has recovered from oversold levels but still signals a slightly bearish sentiment.
  • Odds for a national Bitcoin reserve in 2025 have recently increased above 50% according to the prediction market Polymarket.
Could a US Bitcoin Reserve Be Coming? Cryptoassets Surge as Odds Climb Above 50% | Bitwise Weekly Crypto Market Compass | Bitwise

Chart of the Week

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Polymarket US national reserve 2025
Source: Polymarket, Bitwise Europe

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets generally outperformed traditional assets due to rising odds for a strategic bitcoin reserve in the US. More specifically, Odds for a national Bitcoin reserve in 2025 have recently increased above 50% according to the prediction market Polymarket (Chart-of-the-Week).

Today, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47 th president of the United States of America and it is generally expected that he will sign more than 100 executive orders within the first week in office. Prediction markets even assess the probability of issuing crypto-related executive orders on the very first day (i.e. today) at around 45% at the time of writing this report on Monday morning.

Meanwhile, a large anomaly was Ethereum's significant underperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin and other major cryptoassets. Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin by around -870 bps last week and Solana by even -3460 bps. This was mostly related to the fact that Solana benefited from Trump's official meme coin (TRUMP) that was issued late Friday night on Solana.

Since trading launch, Trump coin has risen to the top 20 cryptoassets by market cap which is the fastest increase since trading launch ever recorded.

The current market cap is around 12 bn USD at the time of writing this report. The fully diluted market cap, after accounting for the potential max supply of Trump coin, is around 60.4 bn USD. This launch has significantly increased Trump's personal net worth as well.

Although the reactions to this launch among industry professionals are relatively mixed, it reinforces the view that Trump's presidency will likely be very favourable towards the crypto industry in the US.

Apart from these developments, we have seen a significant reacceleration in net inflows into global crypto ETPs last week which have also supported the recent rally in prices (more details in the Fund Flows section below).

We have also seen continued buying interest for bitcoin by corporations, most prominently by Microstrategy (MSTR). Michael Saylor has once again indicated on Twitter/X that MSTR has recently made another larger acquisition of bitcoins.

Cross Asset Performance (Week-to-Date) Cross Asset Week to Date Performance
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap; performances in USD exept Bund Future
Top 10 Cryptoasset Performance (Week-to-Date) Crypto Top 10 Week to Date Performance
Source: Coinmarketcap

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Solana, Chainlink, and XRP were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin increased slightly last week, with around 40% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum significantly underperformed Bitcoin last week.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has recovered from oversold levels but still signals a slightly bearish sentiment.

At the moment, 8 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

We are currently observing significant increases in the BTC Put-Call Volume Ratio as well Global Crypto ETP Flows.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals an “Extreme Greed” level of sentiment as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has remained relatively stable at low levels. This signals that altcoins have continued to be more correlated with the performance of Bitcoin lately.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has increased slightly last week, with around 40% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum has significantly underperformed Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin underperformance still signals bearish risk appetite at the moment.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets as measured by our in-house measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) has increased last week. The index signals a slightly bullish cross asset risk appetite.

Fund Flows

Weekly fund flows into global crypto ETPs have reaccelerated significantly last week.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +2,281.5 mn USD in weekly net inflows across all types of cryptoassets, after +187.2 mn USD in net inflows the previous week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs flows have also accelerated significantly with net inflows totalling +2,000.1 mn USD last week, of which +1,866.4 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in the US also saw some decent net inflows, totalling +215.9 mn USD last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) saw accelerating net inflows equivalent to +1.3 mn USD, while the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) also attracted decent amounts of capital of around +6.7 mn USD.

Outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued unabated, with around -87.7 mn USD in net outflows last week. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw around +745.6 mn USD in net inflows last week.

Meanwhile, flows into global Ethereum ETPs reversed significantly, with around +215.2 mn USD in net inflows after -264.1 mn USD in net outflows the week before.

US Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded net inflows with around +212.0 mn USD on aggregate. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) also continued to experience net outflows with around -33.2 mn USD last week.

The Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) in the US also experienced some net inflows of around +3.7 USD in net inflows last week.

In Europe, the Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) also experienced minor positive net inflows of +0.1 mn USD while the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) experienced some net outflows of around -1.5 mn USD.

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum continued to attract capital last week, with around +62.0 mn USD in global net inflows on aggregate. Both the Bitwise Physical Solana ETP (ESOL) and our newly launched Bitwise Solana Staking ETP (BSOL) had sticky AuM (+/- 0 mn USD).

Furthermore, thematic & basket crypto ETPs experienced some minor net inflows of around +4.2 mn USD on aggregate last week. The Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) had sticky AuM last week (+/- 0 mn USD).

Global crypto hedge funds have continued to exhibit a low market exposure to Bitcoin last week. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds' performance to Bitcoin decreased back to around 0.55 per yesterday's close, up from 0.67 the week before.

On-Chain Data

In general, Bitcoin's on-chain developments have continued to be relatively positive.

That being said, selling pressure remained relatively high, with around -1.358 bn USD in net selling volumes on BTC spot exchanges.

On a positive note, exchange balances continued to go down last week, indicating a continuous drop in the amount of liquid supply available on exchanges, indicating that the overall supply deficit in Bitcoin is still intensifying. At the time of writing, only 2.757 million BTC remain on exchanges, according to data provided by Glassnode.

On a net basis, whales have continued to send bitcoins off exchanges. More precisely, last week, BTC whales sent -8,903 BTC off exchanges, indicating a continuously high whale buying interest. Network entities that possess at least 1,000 Bitcoin are referred to as whales.

Worth highlighting is that we are observing a decline in BTC apparent demand, which points towards a deceleration in on-chain capital inflows into bitcoin. This is a risk worth watching over the coming weeks.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, BTC futures traders slightly increased their exposure as open interest increased by around +5k BTC. However, BTC perpetual futures open interest declined by around -10k BTC.

BTC long futures liquidations increased to the highest level since mid-December yesterday due to the sudden drop from around 105k to 101k USD.

Nonetheless, BTC perpetual funding rates soared to the highest level since early December in early Monday morning trading, which implies that perpetual traders are positioning long ahead of the inauguration.

In general, when the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions, which is indicative of bullish (bearish) sentiment.

The BTC 3-months annualised basis also increased to around 13.7% p.a. averaged across various futures exchanges.

Meanwhile, BTC option open interest increased significantly by around +44k BTC last week. The put-call open interest ratio also decreased significantly, signalling high call buying last week.

This was also reflected in the 1-month 25-delta skew for BTC which also decreased and signals increasing bullish sentiment.

BTC option implied volatilities also increased significantly to the highest level since July 2024 signalling increased demand for BTC options.

At the time of writing, implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 64.6% p.a.

Bottom Line

  • Last week, cryptoassets generally outperformed traditional assets due to rising odds for a strategic bitcoin reserve in the US.
  • Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has recovered from oversold levels but still signals a slightly bearish sentiment.
  • Odds for a national Bitcoin reserve in 2025 have recently increased above 50% according to the prediction market Polymarket.

Appendix

Bitcoin Price vs Cryptoasset Sentiment Index Bitcoin Price vs Crypto Sentiment Index
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, Glassnode, NilssonHedge, alternative.me, Bitwise Europe
Cryptoasset Sentiment Index Crypto Sentiment Index Bar Chart
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, Glassnode, NilssonHedge, alternative.me, Bitwise Europe; *multiplied by (-1)
Cryptoasset Sentiment Index Crypto Market Compass Subcomponents
Source: Bloomberg, Coinmarketcap, Glassnode, NilssonHedge, alternative.me, Bitwise Europe
TradFi Sentiment Indicators Crypto Market Compass TradFi Indicators
Source: Bloomberg, NilssonHedge, Bitwise Europe
Crypto Sentiment Indicators Crypto Market Compass Sentiment Indicators
Source: Coinmarketcap, alternative.me, Bitwise Europe
Crypto Options' Sentiment Indicators Crypto Market Compass Option Indicators
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe
Crypto Futures & Perpetuals' Sentiment Indicators Crypto Market Compass Futures Indicators
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe; *Inverted
Crypto On-Chain Indicators Crypto Market Compass OnChain Indicators
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe
Bitcoin vs Crypto Fear & Greed Index Bitcoin Price vs Crypto Fear Greed
Source: alternative.me, Coinmarketcap, Bitwise Europe
Bitcoin vs Global Crypto ETP Fund Flows BTC vs All Crypto ETP Funds Fund Flows Daily long PCT
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; ETPs only, data subject to change
Global Crypto ETP Fund Flows All Crypto ETP Funds Fund Flows Daily short
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; ETPs only; data subject to change
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows US Spot Bitcoin ETF Funds Fund Flows Daily since launch
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; data subject to change
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Flows since launch US Spot Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows since launch
Source: Bloomberg, Fund flows since traiding launch on 11/01/24; data subject to change
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs: 5-days flow US Spot Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows 5d
Source: Bloomber; data subject to change
US Bitcoin ETFs: Net Fund Flows since 11th Jan mn USD US Spot Bitcoin ETF Table
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; data as of 17-01-2025
US Sport Ethereum ETF Fund Flows US Spot Ethereum ETF Funds Fund Flows Daily since launch
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; data subject to change
US Sport Ethereum ETFs: Flows since launch US Spot Ethereum ETF Fund Flows since launch
Source: Bloomberg, Fund flows since trading launch on 23/07/24; data subject on change
US Sport Ethereum ETFs: 5-days flow US Spot Ethereum ETF Fund Flows 5d
Source: Bloomberg; data subject on change
US Ethereum ETFs: Net Fund Flows since 23rd July US Spot Ethereum ETF Table
Source: Bloomberg, Bitwise Europe; data as of 17-01-2025
Bitcoin vs Crypto Hedge Fund Beta Bitcoin Price vs Hedge Fund Beta
Source: Glassnode, Bloomberg, NilssonHedge, Bitwise Europe
Altseason Index Altseason Index short
Source: Coinmetrics, Bitwise Europe
Bitcoin vs Crypto Dispersion Index Crypto Dispersion vs Bitcoin short
Source: Coinmarketcap, Bitwise Europe; Dispersion = (1 - Average Altcoin Correlation with Bitcoin)
Bitcoin Price vs Futures Basis Rate BTC 3m Basis
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe; data as of 2025-01-19
Ethereum Price vs Futures Basis Rate ETH 3m Basis
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe; data as of 2025-01-19
BTC Net Exchange Volume by Size Bitcoin Net Exchange Volume by Size
Source: Glassnode, Bitwise Europe

AVVISO IMPORTANTE:

Questo articolo non costituisce consulenza finanziaria, né rappresenta un'offerta o un invito all'acquisto di prodotti finanziari. Questo articolo è solo a scopo informativo generale, e non vi è alcuna assicurazione o garanzia esplicita o implicita sulla correttezza, accuratezza, completezza o correttezza di questo articolo o delle opinioni in esso contenute. Si consiglia di non fare affidamento sulla correttezza, accuratezza, completezza o correttezza di questo articolo o delle opinioni in esso contenute. Si prega di notare che questo articolo non costituisce né consulenza finanziaria né un'offerta o un invito all'acquisizione di prodotti finanziari o criptovalute.

PRIMA DI INVESTIRE IN CRYPTO ETP, GLI INVESTITORI POTENZIALI DOVREBBERO CONSIDERARE QUANTO SEGUE:

Gli investitori potenziali dovrebbero cercare consulenza indipendente e prendere in considerazione le informazioni rilevanti contenute nel prospetto base e nelle condizioni finali degli ETP, in particolare i fattori di rischio menzionati in essi. Il capitale investito è a rischio, e le perdite fino all'importo investito sono possibili. Il prodotto è soggetto a un rischio controparte intrinseco nei confronti dell'emittente degli ETP e può subire perdite fino a una perdita totale se l'emittente non adempie ai suoi obblighi contrattuali. La struttura legale degli ETP è equivalente a quella di un titolo di debito. Gli ETP sono trattati come altri strumenti finanziari.

Informazioni su Bitwise

Bitwise è uno dei principali asset manager specializzati in criptovalute a livello globale. Migliaia di consulenti finanziari, family office e investitori istituzionali in tutto il mondo si sono uniti a noi per comprendere e cogliere le opportunità offerte dalle criptovalute. Dal 2017, Bitwise ha costruito una solida reputazione nella gestione di una vasta gamma di soluzioni, sia di indici che attive, per ETP, conti gestiti separatamente, fondi privati e strategie di hedge fund, sia negli Stati Uniti che in Europa.

In Europa, Bitwise (precedentemente ETC Group) ha sviluppato negli ultimi quattro anni una delle gamme di ETP su criptovalute più complete e innovative, tra cui il più grande e liquido ETP di bitcoin in Europa, BTCE. Questa famiglia di ETP cripto è domiciliata in Germania ed è approvata dal regolatore tedesco. Collaboriamo esclusivamente con aziende rinomate del settore finanziario tradizionale, garantendo che il 100% degli asset sia conservato offline (cold storage) tramite depositari specializzati e regolamentati.

I nostri prodotti europei comprendono una gamma di strumenti finanziari di qualità istituzionale, che si integrano perfettamente in qualsiasi portafoglio professionale, offrendo un'esposizione completa alla classe di asset cripto. L'accesso è semplice tramite le principali borse europee, con quotazione principale su Xetra, la borsa più liquida per il trading di ETF in Europa. Gli investitori privati beneficiano di un accesso agevole attraverso numerosi broker fai-da-te, insieme alla nostra robusta e sicura struttura ETP fisica, che include anche una funzione di riscatto.

Contatto

Informazioni generali europe@bitwiseinvestments.com
Investitori istituzionali clients@bitwiseinvestments.com
Richieste della stampa europe@bitwiseinvestments.com

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